it's all going to go down tomorrow in congress. it's one of the most interesting fights in congress for a long time. watch this space. hillary versus trump. could we be looking at the battle of the century? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. the time for great politics may be upon us. if the trends continue the idea of a 2016 general election that pits hillary clinton against republican donald trump may switch from plausible to probable. we may see a trump election as greatest choice for president in decades. battle between political maverick on the right as the dramatic test of the young 21st century.

the second week in october, 2015. trump and hillary, the leaders of the pack. susan miller, political writer. howard fineman with the "huffington post." trump promising to flood the air waves with ads and built a national ground game and views the nomination is now within his reach. we're going to the convention. that's it. trump equally defiant. if i don't win what have i done? new polling has him leading in florida by double digits over marco rubio and jeb bush. he leds in ohio. he leads in pennsylvania by five over carson. here is how joe reacted.

>> if any other candidate was doubling a sitting senator running for president and the most iconic governor of the past 50 years for the republican party that's it. >> race is over. >> hillary clinton has new momentum and leads have tightened. she has a 24-point lead in florida over sanders and biden. 19 point lead in introohio and 11 point lead in pennsylvania. i don't know. i think we have to trust polling for what it is. polling is polling. if jeb bush was leading by these numbers we would be working the cabinet. >> we would declare the race over. for obvious reasons people can't get their minds around the fact that donald trump is leading. if you look at history and look where he is now and down a little and coming back up a little, you have to say he is

the favorite. >> i have to -- excuse me. it's also if you take the issues. he is more consistent with the republican party than any other candidates on immigration and everything. >> he started off by hitting that sensitive button on immigration and hasn't really looked back. he is in touch with his part of the republican base, absolutely. >> he talks like most republicans. not like republicans we grew up with. not the east coast establishment types like the bushes. >> i disagree a little bit saying the race is over. >> it ain't over. if you read my lead. going from plausible to probable this fall. who is going to beat him? >> the field is so crowded i don't this go you can assess the numbers in quite the same way. i'm not sure for how many people

he is a second choice. if you are with trump you are with trump. i'm not sure he picks up. >> how about the carson vote? now i think both are floating on this cloud of -- why is carson number two everywhere? >> i'm going to disagree with susan a little bit. >> you are back to us. >> the reason is if you look at the numbers as you showed them up on the screen, after trump are carson and fiorina. if people come away from carly fiorina i think they are more likely to go from donald trump. those people for carson and fiorina saying we don't like politics as it is. we don't want politicians. if they blow up they go to trump.

>> my concern is once you say you are for trump and i say -- i think it is going there. how do you say i changed my mind? i like jeb bush. >> i don't think they like bush more than mitt romney. huckabee, kasich, these guys? >> remember rand paul just to use an illustration. >> is he on the list? >> he is on the list. a year ago everybody was saying he was the thing. he is nowhere and the reason is even though he was once a rebel and an outsider because he is a member of the united states senate -- >> i think political resume is a rap sheet today. >> and the next time we see him wearing a bib at the kids table. here is bill clinton on last night's late show examining trump's dominance.

here is bill. >> why do you think trump is doing so well? >> because he is a master brander and the most interesting character out there. and because he says something that overrides the idea logical differences. there -- >> i think he has political students hat on there. >> he is absolutely right about trump. >> what is the name saying when you pay enormous rent or condo fee through the roof? so you can say i live in a trump building with the gold? >> the glitziness. someone mentioned the reason trump is so appealing is that he does what a guy would do who

didn't have a lot of education and won the lottery. buy the big plane. put your name in glitter. >> he has the arm candy. >> the american population. >> it's less than half. >> an alarming number of people. >> it reminds me with sinatra. sinatra lived a life that you want to live if you have a lot of money. look at the world he lived in. to me the most interesting person in that conversation was bill clinton being very careful about donald trump. in other words, you are not going to catch bill clinton trashing donald trump anytime soon. >> he went to the wedding. >> they are all up there in the trump tower in their minds, the two of them together. donald trump is a wildcard if he is not treated well by the republicans who knows where he will be.

bill clinton saying we may still have business to do a year down the road if hillary makes this. >> think about the working white guy likes him. go to martha's vineyard and hang out in the old days. what does he do? you wouldn't catch donald trump. -- and the clintons are ready for a battle. bill clinton gave thoughts to steve colbert. >> why to you think bernie sanders is doing so well? >> a lot of people all over the world think the system is rigged against them and the rich get all the gains. in america a lot believe the republicans award people

farthest to the right so democrats would be more effective if they move farther to the left. >> bernie sanders is a donald trump on the left. hillary clinton game out against the tpp trade bill. secretary of state clinton called the emerging bill the gold standard. bill clinton called tpp a fabulous trade agreement. in response bernie sanders said he would let the american people decide. he's punching back. >> i will let the american people determine who has credibility or not. i am glad she reached that conclusion. this is a conclusion i reached from day one. i believe that the trans pacific partnership is nothing more than a continuation of disastrous trade policies which we have experienced for the last 30 or so years which led to the loss

of millions of decent paying jobs. >> is that me, too, politics? >> absolutely. but that hillary's answer to that would be who has a real chance of becoming president and therefore renegotiating the tpp? it's not you. it's me. so thank you for guiding me on it. she can thank him for his research. >> she can say -- >> like weekends with bernie. >> she should not be and will not be antagonistic. she is not going to take the bait. she is going to say we agree. it's just i can get it done. >> the new young left. >> she is not going to get early >> she had to come out against tpp. >> because the labor unions. >> look how many democrats voted for fast track.

it was in the teens. the party clearly is -- >> as a party -- >> let's remember that bill clinton talked about bernie sanders appealing to the part of the electorate that feels like they got shafted. how many times did he say they feel like they got the shaft? he was railing against china. >> he wants for people to work hard and play by the rules. >> absolutely. >> it suggested all kinds of wedge without actually saying. >> what does joe biden think of the trade deal? >> he is for it because he is with the president. >> what does that have to do with whether he decides to run for president? >> when is hillary going to stop -- if she keeps finding ways to disagree with president obama. >> this is one --

>> thank you for keeping me honest. coming up, the democratic calls keep coming to dismantle the committee on benghazi. now a new committee to take down planned parenthood. attack hillary and her pro choice position. as the world waits for joe biden's decision the draft biden movement is out with a new ad. we will hear from a focus group of new hampshire democrats who say they don't want him to run. and ben carson's comments saying the victims in oregon should have fought back. did big bill push trump to run for president? that's ahead. this is "hardball," place for politics. guys listen up!

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i did hear they are going to start a special committee. that is what they want to do when they get political and partisan so they will start a committee to examine planned parenthood. it's a waste of time, a waste of money. we have so much to do in our country and these guys are just playing games with people's lives all the time. >> welcome back to "hardball." house republicans voted to form a new select committee to, quote, investigate planned parenthood. it has the same overtones of the select committee on benghazi which house speaker want to be kevin mccarthy said was -- >> we put together a benghaziential sp committee. what are her numbers today? her numbers are dropping. why? because she is untrustable.

no one would have known any of that had happened had we not -- >> today the "new york times" editorial board called for the house to shut down the benghazi committee writing house republicans may be disinclined to disband the select committee on benghazi but should rename the laughable crusade. the inquisition of hillary clinton. they added the effort to find mrs. clinton who was secretary of state at time was personally responsible for the deaths has lost any semblance of credibility and become an insult to the memory of four slain americans. now the planned parenthood committee could limit the effects of options women have for health care. joining me now is u.s. congress woman from california. why would the republicans think it is smart strategy to take

away from poor women or any women an option which is not just choice on abortion rights but the option of going to a place that they know will look out for their health? >> as you know, chris, planned parenthood does so much especially in the low income, the latino community, young women who are going to university. it really is one of the few places where many of the women go for their once a year exams. so trying to take that away from them is really a sad situation. why are they doing it? because they believe that politically they can go after hillary and paint her as a demon and they can jimmy up their nonchoice vote and get them to the polls. it's a very political issue that they are working with. >> aren't they kissing off california? your state hasn't elected a republican pro life since i can remember, way back when.

how far back do you have to go to find somebody? why are they doing it? you think that's a winner? do they think it's a winner? >> they believe when they run the numbers especially in some of the south middle american communities that they can up their numbers there and they can kiss off california, as you said. i believe that with all the information now in today's age with everybody being able to tap into issues that they want more people are understanding the issue of choice and i just don't think it is a winning strategy for them. >> also women's health care generally i think jeb bush made a big mistake when he said we are spending enough money on women already. thanks for joining us from the house tonight. up next when people think president do they think joe biden? we will show you a focus group that is skeptical of the vice president jumping into the race. just about anywhere you use sugar,

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welcome back to "hardball." as a decision over whether to run for president looms for vice president joe biden a superpac is out with the first ad set to run on cable in an effort to encourage biden to get into the contest. >> incredible bond i have with my children is a gift i'm not sure i would have had had i not been through what i went through. but by focusing on my sons i found my redemption. >> after seeing the ad former obama political strategist tweeted am i alone in finding this draft biden ad tasteless? i can't believe he would approve. conducted a simultaneous focus group of democrats in the crucial first states of iowa and

new hampshire and those democrats are not sold on a biden candidacy. >> how many people in the room want joe biden to get in the race? would think it would be a good thing if joe biden entered the race. >> raise your hand if you think joe biden is qualified to be president. >> i guess you can say qualified. >> what are your reasons for not wanting joe biden? >> i can't put my finger on it. i don't have a good reason why i don't think he should run. >> i'm not sure he would make the best president for us. i worry sometimes about some of the things that he has done and said. >> he seems like a really fun guy but i don't know as commander in chief. >> i worry about his temptempprument and decisions he makes.

we have a smarter round table here than they are. white house correspondent for the wall street journal and fran ses cuchambers. david, it reminds me of the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter. i don't know how much thought those people put into it. >> all politics is relative. you don't get to make a choice in a vacuum. you compare between candidates. if you asked what they thought about hillary clinton or bernie sanders maybe they would be lukewarm about those choices. >> maybe waiting for barack obama from 2008 in iowa. the standard is pretty high for an iowa democrat to be excited. it doesn't tell you much to add to the decision making tree. if people said give me joe that might have been pretty extraordinary. i wouldn't have counted on that

happening. you can ask the republicans on the same side how many are excited about jeb bush? >> that clashes with what we are talking about tonight. i think about roosevelt, truman, kennedy, johnson, nixon. and then clinton and obama it is a high average of people. pretty impressive. people when they think of president do they think ben carson? really? really fiorina? do they think they are presidential material? and then look at the polls. they don't look picky to me. >> you said that they are not jumping up and down for joy about joe biden. i have been in iowa and on the campaign trail this time and i am seeing something completely different. i have been surprised how excited in iowa they are for joe biden. every time i tried to talk to them about hillary i have so many people say i'm waiting to see what joe does. when i talk to people out there just as random as the folks in the focus group i'm hearing

experienced, sincere, a man of the people. sure, there are some folks saying he doesn't have the back bone to be president. >> might have been a random group but weren't around randy. what do you think of focus groups? >> you can learn things from them. >> majority opinion? >> i don't know that you can tell majority opinion but a sense of words people associate with different candidates. one thing i found striking was they thought the vice president wasn't experienced enough. >> how many years will it take? >> the age of 29. >> who do they think has more experience? >> vice president for almost eight years. one thing i have noticed here are numbers because i notice in a new swing state poll of florida, ohio and pennsylvania

shows hillary clinton still the heavy favorite among democrats in all those states. clint leads with 43% in florida with biden and sanders at 19. in pennsylvania hillary at 36. what is happening here is biden has crept beyond in the national polls bernie sanders. for a long time we see sanders as alternative to hillary. >> he is not out there campaigning. i think that is so striking. >> that might be good for him. >> that is true. still shows bernie is working that left. your thoughts. >> is biden going to run? >> what can you report based on the latest reporting tonight and what you hear around the paper? do we know more today than last year? is biden going to run or not? is there any movement?

>> there is a discussion underway that will happen this weekend with his family. this is our latest reporting in that some people think he will make a decision one way or another. >> when you have a meeting with his family if he didn't want to run? >> no. >> therefore he is going to run. >> there is a difference between wanting to. >> i talked to people in his universe who have said they want him to. everybody who is around him 'professionally want him to run because they want the action. it's good for them. they believe in the guy. that's why they are in his orbit. but they all say until there is a decision there is really only wishful thinking in this camp. i think biden has been a cipher about this. trade, skepticism and feel the trade deal drives down wages because of international market

for wages. so hillary has come out late today against the tpp, she was part of negotiating it but she is off of it. bernie is against it. biden is going to have to defend the president running as an obama guy. does that sort of justify a debate? i think it would be great to have a debate over trade. >> what is interesting is i have been talking to strategists saying -- >> trade is going to come up in the first debate. >> i think -- can he go into the race with a reason to fight? i am a moderate democrat. >> i think if you look at the ad that came out today by the super pac it had nothing to do with the message of what he would do. i thought it was being

exploitative of a personal tragedy and viewers might think it is his ad and might not like it. the focus group i don't think anybody can tell you what joe biden needs. what does he want to do. >> any way he can go to the left of hillary? >> on foreign policy issues perhaps. >> i think hillary is much more hawkish than obama. >> recently she has distanced herself in the administration on tpp, syria and deportation. she is setting up to differentiate herself not only from biden but paving a way. >> he runs as a minority candidate. he says i have been with obama all the way. i'm obama's guy. if you like obama stick with me. i'm going to stick with him. that's not a bad position for a man with great african-american

support to do. >> and if bernie maintains a strong position he needs less number of votes to beat hillary than otherwise. >> now i think there is a rationale for joe to run. run as obama's candidate and to continue the policy in the middle east and also continue to fight hillary. the round table is staying with us. up next dr. ben carson has got to clean up his comments suggesting if he were confronted by a gunman he would have acted tougher than the folks at the school in oregon. do you believe it? ought to be something above the level that he is operating at.

we are back with the round table. republican candidate ben carson is taking a lot of heat today for saying he would have confrbted the gunman in last week's shooting in oregon. here is what he said yesterday morning. >> not only would i probably not cooperate with him, i would not just stand there and let him shoot me. i would say everybody attack him. he may shoot me but he can't get us all. >> it appeared to many carson was saying they cooperated with the shooter. last night carson tried to explain what he meant on fox news. >> of course, you know, if everybody attacks that gunman he is not going to be able to kill everybody. if you sit there and let him

shoot you one by one you are all going to be dead. >> in a time of great stress like that one might not know exactly what to do. and to judge them and sound like you are judging them. i'm not judging them at all but these incidents continue to occur. i doubt this is the last one. i want to plant the seed in people's mind so if this happens again they don't all get killed. >> anything to take the heat off the killer. today donald trump defended carson saying ben carson was speaking in general terms as to what he would do and was not criticizing the victims. not fair. isn't it nice when he is cute. this is a game. they are a tag team on this. trump and especially carson is so pro-gun. wait until you see other quotes. >> i hope we get to. >> blaming the victims and leaving the killer off the hook. >> they are playing to the republican base.

there can't be no talk of gun safety measures. the thing about ben carson is he cruised along at the top of the republican pack for a couple of months now. he is under the radar 20%. this is a guy you start looking at what he said about all sorts of things but evolution and the devil behind the big bang theory and believing communists -- he -- >> look at this one. this is how bad it gets. we talk about the number of bullet wounds. he said i never saw a body with bullet holes more devastating than taking the right to arm ourselves away. in other words, no matter how awful it is. nobody is talking about taking guns away from anybody. what is he talking about and who is he talking to? >> the thing striking to me is he keeps trying to defend his remarks and make it better. this morning he is on cbs. >> pressed further on cbs this

morning. let's watch. >> do you believe the victims in oregon just stood there? >> from the indications that i got they did not rush the shooter. >> do you know who chris mintz is? he was shot seven times. he did rush the shooter and being hailed as a hero. he blocked the door and saved people's lives. so someone did act heroically. >> that verifies what i'm saying. >> what do you make of that? contradicted a contradiction of his contradiction. >> he puts the focus on the victims. >> the big problem was he was factually incorrect saying someone should have tried to do something. someone did try to do that. what happened is after he barricaded the door the shooter was able to get in and able to

keep on killing. i think that's kind of the problem with dr. carson's statement s statements. >> how far can you go with the pro gun statements? >> that plays well with the republican base. this is not just gun control. he is talking about after a tragedy abou bodies with bullet holes and they should have reacted differently. if you are a parent of a child who was lost or your brother or sister no one wants to hear this. >> pretty grotesque. >> i think in that sense even if his intentions are what he said they are it's not the time and it's not playing well to anybody. it's a totally different level. >> not having your head screwed on. you shouldn't be talking about how it's their fault they didn't

act properly. >> talk about bad bed side manner. this shows a lapse in judgment. >> an interview with usa today dr. carson said gun control is the first step towards tyranny. >> when you look at tyranny and how it occurs the pattern is so consistent. get rid of the guns for the people first so you can go in and dominate them. that is not what we need to be doing. >> he is suggesting that somebody in washington is trying to collect the guns so they can create a tyranny. who would that person be and where is this happening? >> if you ask president obama he might -- he said there were crack pot theories that he wanted to take the guns so he could run for a third term. >> that is a real belief on the right. i get e-mails every day some signed by rand paul for various pacs and gun rights groups that

say there is a secret plan for him to have a third term and to invade texas and take that over. they really -- >> just tell people give me a date when you are pretty sure that will happen. after it is over say it didn't happen. set a realistic exercise that forces you to realize it is nonsense. in five years if they haven't come to collect the guns would you believe you are paranoid or ten years? in other words, how can this theory never been disproven? it never comes. >> they keep it at bay. they succeed. >> because they are hiding out in idaho with a bunch of guns. >> and electing republicans to congress. >> the blck helicopters are not being shot down. >> i think carson has played a brilliant role as a buffer between donald trump and

reality. it's like if you kick nixon out of the white house you get agnew. if you get rid of trump you get dr. carson. >> he hasn't been as heavily scrutinized because donald trump has been leading in the polls and that is who everyone is talking about. if you look at dr. carson and when he speaks asked what he would do if a hurricane was coming his way. i don't know. he doesn't know what to do in that situation. when you talk to him on the campaign trail it is hard to ask him questions. i think if he does move up in the polls he will have to talk to reporters and do more interviews and that could be a problem. >> i will scrutinize him. i have been too soft on the guy. up next from the nfl field to the presidential ticket. i'm going to speak to two

authors about how jack camp used his background in professional sports to shake up establishment republican thinking. this is "hardball." we stop arthritis pain, so you don't have to stop. tylenol® 8hr arthritis pain has two layers of pain relief. the first is fast. the second lasts all day. we give you your day back. what you do with it is up to you. tylenol®.

start the interview with a firm handshake. ay,no! don't do that! try head & shoulders instant relief. it cools on contact, and also keeps you 100% flake free. try head & shoulders instant relief. for cooling relief in a snap. here is more from the late night interview when colbert asked whether clinton encouraged donald trump to run for president. >> there is a rumor out there and you feel free to dispel that. did you call donald trump and ask him to run for president of the united states?

>> no. no. >> that would be pretty smart, man. >> yeah, i get credit for doing a lot of things i didn't do like that. >> you never said iowa is beautiful this time of year. >> i had a very pleasant conversation with him and it wasn't about running for office. so i missed the chance. >> we'll be right back.

lincoln founded the republican party 1860 on one predicate. all men are created equal.

your opponents, i learned on the football field, i learned on the football field that you can be a good opponent and walk off that field. shake hands and be friends. and i can tell you my best friend in professional football, they are not just my teammates but the guys who used to try to knock my head off. >> that was refreshing, conservative hero jack kemp joining bob dole as running mate. he was a star quarterback for the chargers, congressman from buffalo, new york, cabinet secretary, and presidential candidate. some call him the most important politician of the century who was not president.

at times his position on other issues bothered members of his party. he pointed his entire life against racism and tried to open the republican party to minorities. he declared a war on poverty, and apart from the gop the most was his distaste as you just heard there for personal attacks. joining me, great new book, jack kemp, the bleeding heart conservative who changed america. you guys are two great journalists, let's talk about jack kemp, let's talk about the ethnic part, he played with a lot of african-americans. >> it was said he showered with more african-americans than most republicans have met. he said late in his life that he

missed out on the civil rights movement and this was his chance to get to -- to do right by african-americans. and he wanted the republican party to once again become the party of lincoln. and he really believed -- this was kind of fanciful, that he could get more african-americans back in the party. >> it was not just a political -- a social club. he got along with everybody. usually when you're an idealogue, it means your angry. >> going back to the idea of kemp and race. remember the republican party he came from, he was from los angeles, born in 1935. he was born into a republican family. this was back in the days if you were from the south, you were either for immigration or civil rights -- and so on, and so on.

he had very strong feelings about race before he got to football. we saw him in action there when he joined black players in the afl who wanted him to segregate the players. they would go in different hotels. >> and the black players, of course would get the black ones. >> he agreed to stay with the black ones. he wouldn't go to the better hotels. reagan was very different in '76. he wanted to be the tight spending guy, comes back in 1980 and works against carter with the idea i can be the second santa claus, give away money, tax money. >> and kemp converted him. so kemp invented -- he took the idea of supply side economics and made it political. >> lower the taxes but lower the rate, the marginal rate to get

the growth rate up. >> right, the top rate in 1981 was 70%, right? so reagan using kemp law knocked it down to 50, and then tax reform knocked it down to 28. and then a quarter century of growth ensured. it also made possible the defense budget which helped knock the soviet union out of existence. >> so you're a kemp guy. >> a convert, i was already there. >> i know him personally as we all did. he was a good guy, socially, with people, minorities. and i think we can use a little this today. an idea of having strong views, an idea of having strong views on the right and he respected people and didn't make fun of people. >> he is relevant to the present context. >> he is not really the same personality stripe as donald trump. thank you, fred barnes, the book

is called "jack kemp, bleeding heart conservative." i think it's good for progressives, too. we'll be right back with "hardball" right after this. tylenol® 8hr arthritis pain has two layers of pain relief. the first is fast. the second lasts all day. we give you your day back. what you do with it is up to you. tylenol®.

let me finish tonight with this. sometimes the crazy comes through. i'm talking crazy politics here. i'll leave the clinical questions to the professionals. why would someone running for president, yes, sadly, it's ben carson, lay the blame on the young people in oregon who are just killed by a mass murderer? why would he say they should

behave differently when he doesn't even know how they behaved seconds before they were killed. why say that when no one is talking about taking away their gun rights. why make such a drastic, even contemptible thing about gunshot victims at any time for any reason, what does carson mean when he says the road to tyranny lies to collecting people's guns when nobody is trying to collect people's guns. why would he say he would not bother going to oregon, to roseburg, if he were the president. why would he say he had anything better to do as if anything would be better than this? look, we all know there is pandering going on everywhere, but letting the right walk all over you and sticking your head

up saying now, will you make me president? it is pathetic. msnbc's "first look" starts right now. it's thursday, october 8th. right now on "first look," an emboldened vladimir putin flexing russia's military might causes the first clash with western forces are since the cold war. president barack obama directs an apology to doctors without borders but that's just the beginning. >> this doesn't change anything. we appreciate the expression of condolences. but it doesn't change the fact that we have 22 dead patients and staff. and then this is the result of a flying mattress. plus, a whole hands on approach to politics and the press. and then something that hasn't happened since 1945, a shutout propels the cubs closer to a world series. "first look" starts right now.